Higher business investment and government spending lift growth to a level likely to worry policymakers, albeit consensus still says rates have peaked.
29 November 2023
The second estimate of US third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has just landed. This shows a bit of a bump up from the advance GDP print of a month ago, from 4.9% annualised growth to 5.2% now, compared to forecasts of 5.0%. Revisions higher in business investment and government spending seem to be the bigger needle movers in this GDP release, while consumer spending advanced a more modest 3.6%.
Even with this higher growth rate, the consensus seems to still think that rates have peaked, and that may be corroborated in modestly weaker consumer spending. Nevertheless, the resilience of US growth will continue to worry the Federal Reserve.
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The information in this document is given for information purposes only and does not qualify as investment advice. Opinions and assessments contained in this document may change and reflect the point of view of GAM in the current economic environment. No liability shall be accepted for the accuracy and completeness of the information. Past performance is not an indicator for the current or future development.