Recovery from December’s disappointment raises hope that UK recession could be both shallow and brief.
16 February 2024
After December’s 3.3% collapse in UK retail sales, today’s number for January went against all expectations. Retail sales rose 3.4%, the biggest monthly rise since April 2021, despite the country being underwater, both literally and figuratively after a battering by three separate winter storms.
It should be noted that this data can be extremely volatile and swings as wildly as a Tory by-election majority. But if this trend persists and more insightful economic data continues to come in better than forecast, the economic slowdown is expected to be a shallow and short-lived affair. That is not necessarily good news for early rate cut hopes.
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The information in this document is given for information purposes only and does not qualify as investment advice. Opinions and assessments contained in this document may change and reflect the point of view of GAM in the current economic environment. No liability shall be accepted for the accuracy and completeness of the information. Past performance is not an indicator for the current or future development.